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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 5 at the 70

Philadelphia Eagles 24 – Los Angeles Rams 21

What Actually Happened

(10:13) 8-D.Jones punt is BLOCKED by 88-M.Thomas, Center-45-R.Lovato, RECOVERED by LA-24-B.Countess at PHI 16. 24-B.Countess for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO -1.50 EP
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.53 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 70, worth -4.05 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.23 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 28, worth -1.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model