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Houston Texans

HC Bill O'Brien
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TEN Home

Tennessee Titans

HC Mike Mularkey
Sunday 2017-12-03 · 13:00 Nissan Stadium, Nashville US ☀️ Clear Spread 7.0 O/U 42.5

Win Probability

HOU
45.1%
TEN
54.9%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • TEN offense: -0.179 EPA/play over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • QB edge to TEN: Marcus Mariota (TEN) -0.002 vs Tom Savage (HOU) -0.224 EPA/dropback
  • TEN defense: -0.082 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (11th in the league)
  • HOU defense: -0.079 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (12th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

HOU 22
–
TEN 23
Projected margin: TEN by 1 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 13

HOU

Julien Davenport T Out Shoulder
Will Fuller WR Out Ribs
Brennan Scarlett LB Out Foot

TEN

Rishard Matthews WR Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 13 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

HOU 13
–
TEN 24

Prediction missed by 10 pts on margin, 8 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:25 FG HOU (9:25) (Field Goal formation) 7-K.Fairbairn 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler. HOU 3 – TEN 0
  • Q2 10:48 TD HOU (10:48) (Shotgun) 3-T.Savage pass short left to 89-S.Anderson for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. HOU 9 – TEN 0
  • Q2 04:23 TD TEN (4:23) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota scrambles left end for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 10 – TEN 6
  • Q2 00:08 FG TEN (:08) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Succop 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern. HOU 10 – TEN 10
  • Q3 00:09 TD TEN (:09) 8-M.Mariota pass deep middle to 82-D.Walker for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN [98-D.Reader]. TEN-82-D.Walker was injured during the play. His return is Questionable. HOU 10 – TEN 16
  • Q4 04:42 FG HOU (4:42) (Field Goal formation) 7-K.Fairbairn 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler. HOU 13 – TEN 17
  • Q4 00:57 TD TEN (:57) 22-D.Henry left end for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on TEN-60-B.Jones, Taunting, 15 yards, enforced between downs. HOU 13 – TEN 23

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.20 EP
    p(convert) 70%

    (13:17) (Punt formation) 9-S.Lechler punts 54 yards to TEN 12, Center-46-J.Weeks. 25-A.Jackson to TEN 37 for 25 yards (28-A.Blue). FUMBLES (28-A.Blue), RECOVERED by HOU-22-J.Todman at TEN 41. 22-J.Todman to TEN 41 for no gain (94-A.Johnson).

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 5 at the 5
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.37 EP
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 98%

    (9:25) (Field Goal formation) 7-K.Fairbairn 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler.

  • Q1 TEN 4th & 2 at the 22
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51% p(FG) 88%

    (4:59) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Succop 40 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 4 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (2:57) (Punt formation) 9-S.Lechler punts 48 yards to TEN 16, Center-46-J.Weeks. 25-A.Jackson pushed ob at TEN 32 for 16 yards (44-J.Jenkins). PENALTY on TEN-55-J.Brown, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at TEN 32.

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 4 at the 43
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 45%

    (14:05) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 30 yards to HOU 13, Center-48-B.Brinkley, fair catch by 13-B.Miller.

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 18 at the 30
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 22% p(FG) 76%

    (:43) (Field Goal formation) 7-K.Fairbairn 48 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Left Upright, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler.

  • Q3 TEN 4th & 8 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (13:36) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 55 yards to HOU 18, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 13-B.Miller ran ob at HOU 26 for 8 yards (14-E.Weems).

  • Q3 HOU 4th & 9 at the 9
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 97%

    (5:24) (Field Goal formation) 7-K.Fairbairn 27 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler.

  • Q3 TEN 4th & 1 at the 27
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 63% p(FG) 81%

    (:49) 22-D.Henry right guard to HOU 24 for 3 yards (52-B.Peters).

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 2 at the 56
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.82 EP
    p(convert) 58%

    (13:37) (Punt formation) 9-S.Lechler punts 37 yards to TEN 19, Center-46-J.Weeks, out of bounds.

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 11 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (11:40) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 59 yards to HOU 4, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 14-C.Thompson pushed ob at HOU 19 for 15 yards (41-B.Trawick).

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 10 at the 24 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 86%

    (4:42) (Field Goal formation) 7-K.Fairbairn 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler.

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 11 at the 76 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (3:01) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 55 yards to HOU 21, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 14-C.Thompson MUFFS catch, touched at HOU 21, and recovers at HOU 22. 14-C.Thompson to HOU 28 for 6 yards (33-T.Smith).

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 19 at the 51 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23% p(FG) 26%

    (1:54) (Shotgun) 3-T.Savage pass deep right to 89-S.Anderson to TEN 29 for 22 yards (36-L.Sims). The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.