4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 10 at the 24

Houston Texans 10 – Tennessee Titans 17

What Actually Happened

(4:42) (Field Goal formation) 7-K.Fairbairn 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler.

The Three Options

GO +0.86 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +4.78 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 24, worth -0.70 EP
KICK +1.64 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 86% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 34, worth -1.26 EP
PUNT -0.25 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model