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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 2 at the 22

Tennessee Titans 0 – Houston Texans 3

What Actually Happened

(4:59) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Succop 40 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.

The Three Options

GO +2.14 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.74 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 22, worth -0.53 EP
KICK +1.92 EP
What Happened
  • 88% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.34 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 32, worth -1.18 EP
PUNT +0.18 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth +0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model