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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tennessee Titans 4th & 1 at the 27

Tennessee Titans 10 – Houston Texans 10

What Actually Happened

(:49) 22-D.Henry right guard to HOU 24 for 3 yards (52-B.Peters).

The Three Options

GO +2.33 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.36 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 27, worth -1.09 EP
KICK +1.27 EP
  • 81% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.01 EP
  • 19% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 37, worth -1.95 EP
PUNT -0.10 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model