Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 11 at the 63

Tennessee Titans 17 – Houston Texans 10

(11:40) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 59 yards to HOU 4, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 14-C.Thompson pushed ob at HOU 19 for 15 yards (41-B.Trawick).

The Three Options

GO -1.82 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.49 EP
71% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 63, worth -3.55 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model