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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 4 at the 64

Houston Texans 3 – Tennessee Titans 0

What Actually Happened

(2:57) (Punt formation) 9-S.Lechler punts 48 yards to TEN 16, Center-46-J.Weeks. 25-A.Jackson pushed ob at TEN 32 for 16 yards (44-J.Jenkins). PENALTY on TEN-55-J.Brown, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at TEN 32.

The Three Options

GO -1.11 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.78 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 64, worth -3.77 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -1.18 EP
What Happened
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 22, worth -1.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model