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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 18 at the 30

Houston Texans 10 – Tennessee Titans 7

What Actually Happened

(:43) (Field Goal formation) 7-K.Fairbairn 48 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Left Upright, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler.

The Three Options

GO +0.39 EP
  • 22% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +4.79 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 30, worth -0.82 EP
KICK +1.49 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 76% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.40 EP
  • 24% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 40, worth -1.38 EP
PUNT -0.01 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model