Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 11 at the 76

Tennessee Titans 17 – Houston Texans 13

What Actually Happened

(3:01) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 55 yards to HOU 21, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 14-C.Thompson MUFFS catch, touched at HOU 21, and recovers at HOU 22. 14-C.Thompson to HOU 28 for 6 yards (33-T.Smith).

The Three Options

GO -2.29 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.16 EP
70% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 76, worth -3.77 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model