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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 2 at the 56

Houston Texans 10 – Tennessee Titans 17

What Actually Happened

(13:37) (Punt formation) 9-S.Lechler punts 37 yards to TEN 19, Center-46-J.Weeks, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO +0.35 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.56 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 56, worth -2.76 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.47 EP
What Happened
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 17, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.82 EP