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Carolina Panthers

8-4 HC Ron Rivera
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New Orleans Saints

9-3 HC Sean Payton
Sunday 2017-12-03 · 16:25 ET Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans US 🏟 Dome Spread 5.5 O/U 48.0

Win Probability

CAR
35.8%
NO
64.2%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: clear edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • NO offense: +0.146 EPA/play over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • Drew Brees (NO): +0.210 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • CAR defense: -0.098 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
  • CAR offense: +0.023 EPA/play over its last 8 games (8th in the league)

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

CAR 22 15–29
–
NO 27 20–34
Projected margin: NO by 5 Projected total: 49

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 13

CAR

John Theus T Out Illness
Greg Olsen TE Questionable Foot
Thomas Davis LB Questionable Hamstring
Ryan Kalil C Questionable Neck
Christian McCaffrey RB Questionable Shoulder
Shaq Thompson LB Questionable Foot

NO

Coby Fleener TE Out Concussion
Marcus Williams S Out Groin
P.J. Williams CB Questionable Shoulder
Terron Armstead T Questionable Thigh
Marshon Lattimore CB Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 13 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CAR 21
–
NO 31

Prediction missed by 5 pts on margin, 3 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:21 TD NO (10:21) 41-A.Kamara right end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 0 – NO 6
  • Q1 05:12 TD CAR (5:12) 72-T.Moton reported in as eligible. 28-J.Stewart left guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 6 – NO 7
  • Q2 11:36 TD NO (11:36) 22-M.Ingram right guard for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 7 – NO 13
  • Q2 07:27 TD NO (7:27) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short right to 13-M.Thomas for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 10, YAC 0 CAR 7 – NO 20
  • Q2 02:05 TD CAR (2:05) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass short left to 22-C.McCaffrey for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO-91-T.Hendrickson was injured during the play. His return is Questionable. Pass 1, YAC 20 CAR 13 – NO 21
  • Q3 08:17 TD NO (8:17) 41-A.Kamara right tackle for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 14 – NO 27
  • Q4 06:13 FG NO (6:13) 3-W.Lutz 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead. CAR 14 – NO 31
  • Q4 04:03 TD CAR (4:03) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass short right to 17-D.Funchess for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 14, YAC 10 CAR 20 – NO 31

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NO 4th & 2 at the 2
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 54% p(FG) 98%

    (10:21) 41-A.Kamara right end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 NO 4th & 4 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51%

    (3:57) 6-T.Morstead punts 49 yards to CAR 20, Center-49-Z.Wood. 12-K.Clay pushed ob at CAR 28 for 8 yards (50-G.Hodges).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 CAR 4th & 7 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (1:38) 5-M.Palardy punts 44 yards to NO 25, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 11-T.Lewis.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 NO 4th & 6 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (:20) 6-T.Morstead punts 46 yards to CAR 25, Center-49-Z.Wood. 12-K.Clay to CAR 34 for 9 yards (56-M.Mauti).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 CAR 4th & 5 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (13:17) 5-M.Palardy punts 48 yards to NO 13, Center-44-J.Jansen. 11-T.Lewis to NO 16 for 3 yards (27-K.Seymour).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 CAR 4th & 4 at the 69
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (10:45) (Punt formation) 5-M.Palardy to CAR 22 for -9 yards. FUMBLES, and recovers at CAR 22. 5-M.Palardy pass incomplete short right to 54-S.Thompson. Penalty on CAR-54-S.Thompson, Ineligible Downfield Pass, declined. Palardy got the snap cleanly, then fumbled when he attempted to ready to punt. He recovered his fumble and threw an incomplete pass.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 CAR 4th & 1 at the 68
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.99 EP
    p(convert) 70%

    (5:12) 5-M.Palardy punts 51 yards to NO 17, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 11-T.Lewis.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 NO 4th & 17 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 31%

    (:55) 6-T.Morstead punts 36 yards to CAR 14, Center-49-Z.Wood, downed by NO-52-C.Robertson. PENALTY on NO-37-A.Maulet, Illegal Shift, 5 yards, enforced at CAR 14.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 CAR 4th & 15 at the 86
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (13:34) 5-M.Palardy punts 45 yards to NO 41, Center-44-J.Jansen. 11-T.Lewis for 59 yards, TOUCHDOWN NULLIFIED by Penalty. Penalty on NO-93-D.Onyemata, Illegal Block Above the Waist, declined. PENALTY on NO-37-A.Maulet, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at NO 43.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 CAR 4th & 7 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (5:46) 5-M.Palardy punts 27 yards to NO 35, Center-44-J.Jansen, downed by CAR-19-R.Shepard.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 NO 4th & 7 at the 20
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 91%

    (1:23) 3-W.Lutz 38 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 CAR 4th & 6 at the 12
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 96%

    (11:22) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass short right to 17-D.Funchess pushed ob at NO 7 for 5 yards (20-K.Crawley). Pass -5, YAC 10

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 NO 4th & 12 at the 95
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (9:08) 6-T.Morstead punts 53 yards to CAR 42, Center-49-Z.Wood. 12-K.Clay to CAR 45 for 3 yards (31-C.Banjo). FUMBLES (31-C.Banjo), RECOVERED by NO-52-C.Robertson at CAR 47. 52-C.Robertson to CAR 47 for no gain (96-W.Horton).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 NO 4th & 7 at the 13
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 95%

    (6:13) 3-W.Lutz 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

    See the full breakdown →