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CAR Away

Carolina Panthers

HC Ron Rivera
@
NO Home

New Orleans Saints

HC Sean Payton
Sunday 2017-12-03 · 16:25 Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans US 🏟 Dome Spread 5.5 O/U 48.0

Win Probability

CAR
32.9%
NO
67.1%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NO offense: +0.146 EPA/play over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • NO defense: -0.115 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
  • Drew Brees (NO): +0.210 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • CAR offense: +0.023 EPA/play over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
  • CAR defense: -0.098 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (8th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

CAR 22
–
NO 27
Projected margin: NO by 5 Projected total: 49

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 13

CAR

John Theus T Out Illness
Greg Olsen TE Questionable Foot
Thomas Davis LB Questionable Hamstring
Ryan Kalil C Questionable Neck
Christian McCaffrey RB Questionable Shoulder
Shaq Thompson LB Questionable Foot

NO

Coby Fleener TE Out Concussion
Marcus Williams S Out Groin
P.J. Williams CB Questionable Shoulder
Terron Armstead T Questionable Thigh
Marshon Lattimore CB Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 13 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CAR 21
–
NO 31

Prediction missed by 5 pts on margin, 3 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:21 TD NO (10:21) 41-A.Kamara right end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 0 – NO 6
  • Q1 05:12 TD CAR (5:12) 72-T.Moton reported in as eligible. 28-J.Stewart left guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 6 – NO 7
  • Q2 11:36 TD NO (11:36) 22-M.Ingram right guard for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 7 – NO 13
  • Q2 07:27 TD NO (7:27) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short right to 13-M.Thomas for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 10, YAC 0 CAR 7 – NO 20
  • Q2 02:05 TD CAR (2:05) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass short left to 22-C.McCaffrey for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO-91-T.Hendrickson was injured during the play. His return is Questionable. Pass 1, YAC 20 CAR 13 – NO 21
  • Q3 08:17 TD NO (8:17) 41-A.Kamara right tackle for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 14 – NO 27
  • Q4 06:13 FG NO (6:13) 3-W.Lutz 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead. CAR 14 – NO 31
  • Q4 04:03 TD CAR (4:03) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass short right to 17-D.Funchess for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 14, YAC 10 CAR 20 – NO 31

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NO 4th & 2 at the 2
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 54% p(FG) 98%

    (10:21) 41-A.Kamara right end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q1 NO 4th & 4 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51%

    (3:57) 6-T.Morstead punts 49 yards to CAR 20, Center-49-Z.Wood. 12-K.Clay pushed ob at CAR 28 for 8 yards (50-G.Hodges).

  • Q1 CAR 4th & 7 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (1:38) 5-M.Palardy punts 44 yards to NO 25, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 11-T.Lewis.

  • Q1 NO 4th & 6 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (:20) 6-T.Morstead punts 46 yards to CAR 25, Center-49-Z.Wood. 12-K.Clay to CAR 34 for 9 yards (56-M.Mauti).

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 5 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (13:17) 5-M.Palardy punts 48 yards to NO 13, Center-44-J.Jansen. 11-T.Lewis to NO 16 for 3 yards (27-K.Seymour).

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 4 at the 69
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (10:45) (Punt formation) 5-M.Palardy to CAR 22 for -9 yards. FUMBLES, and recovers at CAR 22. 5-M.Palardy pass incomplete short right to 54-S.Thompson. Penalty on CAR-54-S.Thompson, Ineligible Downfield Pass, declined. Palardy got the snap cleanly, then fumbled when he attempted to ready to punt. He recovered his fumble and threw an incomplete pass.

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 1 at the 68
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.99 EP
    p(convert) 70%

    (5:12) 5-M.Palardy punts 51 yards to NO 17, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 11-T.Lewis.

  • Q2 NO 4th & 17 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 31%

    (:55) 6-T.Morstead punts 36 yards to CAR 14, Center-49-Z.Wood, downed by NO-52-C.Robertson. PENALTY on NO-37-A.Maulet, Illegal Shift, 5 yards, enforced at CAR 14.

  • Q3 CAR 4th & 15 at the 86
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (13:34) 5-M.Palardy punts 45 yards to NO 41, Center-44-J.Jansen. 11-T.Lewis for 59 yards, TOUCHDOWN NULLIFIED by Penalty. Penalty on NO-93-D.Onyemata, Illegal Block Above the Waist, declined. PENALTY on NO-37-A.Maulet, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at NO 43.

  • Q3 CAR 4th & 7 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (5:46) 5-M.Palardy punts 27 yards to NO 35, Center-44-J.Jansen, downed by CAR-19-R.Shepard.

  • Q3 NO 4th & 7 at the 20
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 91%

    (1:23) 3-W.Lutz 38 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 6 at the 12
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 96%

    (11:22) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass short right to 17-D.Funchess pushed ob at NO 7 for 5 yards (20-K.Crawley). Pass -5, YAC 10

  • Q4 NO 4th & 12 at the 95
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (9:08) 6-T.Morstead punts 53 yards to CAR 42, Center-49-Z.Wood. 12-K.Clay to CAR 45 for 3 yards (31-C.Banjo). FUMBLES (31-C.Banjo), RECOVERED by NO-52-C.Robertson at CAR 47. 52-C.Robertson to CAR 47 for no gain (96-W.Horton).

  • Q4 NO 4th & 7 at the 13
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 95%

    (6:13) 3-W.Lutz 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.