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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q1
New Orleans Saints
4th & 2 at the 2
New Orleans Saints 0 – Carolina Panthers 0
What Actually Happened
(10:21) 41-A.Kamara right end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The Three Options
GO
+3.82 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
54% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.37 EP
- 46% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 2, worth +0.86 EP
KICK
+2.40 EP
- 98% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.44 EP
- 2% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.28 EP
PUNT
+0.32 EP
- Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.32 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
