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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 17 at the 50

New Orleans Saints 21 – Carolina Panthers 14

What Actually Happened

(:55) 6-T.Morstead punts 36 yards to CAR 14, Center-49-Z.Wood, downed by NO-52-C.Robertson. PENALTY on NO-37-A.Maulet, Illegal Shift, 5 yards, enforced at CAR 14.

The Three Options

GO -0.13 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.52 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 50, worth -1.41 EP
KICK -0.13 EP
  • 31% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.71 EP
  • 69% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 49, worth -1.41 EP
PUNT +0.06 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 14, worth +0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model