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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 4 at the 69

Carolina Panthers 7 – New Orleans Saints 14

What Actually Happened

(10:45) (Punt formation) 5-M.Palardy to CAR 22 for -9 yards. FUMBLES, and recovers at CAR 22. 5-M.Palardy pass incomplete short right to 54-S.Thompson. Penalty on CAR-54-S.Thompson, Ineligible Downfield Pass, declined. Palardy got the snap cleanly, then fumbled when he attempted to ready to punt. He recovered his fumble and threw an incomplete pass.

The Three Options

GO -1.18 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.73 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 69, worth -3.90 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -1.32 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 27, worth -1.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model