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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New Orleans Saints 4th & 7 at the 20

New Orleans Saints 28 – Carolina Panthers 14

What Actually Happened

(1:23) 3-W.Lutz 38 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO +1.44 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +5.12 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 20, worth -0.58 EP
KICK +1.84 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 91% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 30, worth -1.23 EP
PUNT +0.09 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model