Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 5 at the 61

Carolina Panthers 7 – New Orleans Saints 7

(13:17) 5-M.Palardy punts 48 yards to NO 13, Center-44-J.Jansen. 11-T.Lewis to NO 16 for 3 yards (27-K.Seymour).

The Three Options

GO -0.96 EP

44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.21 EP
56% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 61, worth -3.40 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model