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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New Orleans Saints 4th & 4 at the 69

New Orleans Saints 7 – Carolina Panthers 7

What Actually Happened

(3:57) 6-T.Morstead punts 49 yards to CAR 20, Center-49-Z.Wood. 12-K.Clay pushed ob at CAR 28 for 8 yards (50-G.Hodges).

The Three Options

GO -0.97 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.74 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 69, worth -3.77 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -1.02 EP
What Happened
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 27, worth -1.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model