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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 1 at the 68

Carolina Panthers 7 – New Orleans Saints 21

What Actually Happened

(5:12) 5-M.Palardy punts 51 yards to NO 17, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 11-T.Lewis.

The Three Options

GO +0.14 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.76 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 68, worth -3.73 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -0.85 EP
What Happened
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 26, worth -0.85 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.99 EP