Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 15 at the 86

Carolina Panthers 14 – New Orleans Saints 21

What Actually Happened

(13:34) 5-M.Palardy punts 45 yards to NO 41, Center-44-J.Jansen. 11-T.Lewis for 59 yards, TOUCHDOWN NULLIFIED by Penalty. Penalty on NO-93-D.Onyemata, Illegal Block Above the Waist, declined. PENALTY on NO-37-A.Maulet, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at NO 43.

The Three Options

GO -3.27 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +1.32 EP
70% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 86, worth -5.18 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (103 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model