TB @ MIA — 4th & Data

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Miami Dolphins

4-6 HC Adam Gase

Sunday 2017-11-19 · 13:00 ET Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens US ☀️ Clear Spread -1.0 O/U 44.0

Win Probability

62.7%

MIA

37.3%

☀️ Clear

Confidence: clear edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

MIA offense: -0.201 EPA/play over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
MIA defense: +0.053 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
TB offense: -0.056 EPA/play over its last 8 games (18th in the league)
TB defense: +0.048 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
QB edge to TB: Jay Cutler (MIA) -0.069 vs Ryan Fitzpatrick (TB) -0.054 EPA/dropback

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

TB 22 15–29

–

MIA 21 14–28

Projected margin: TB by 1 Projected total: 43

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 11

TB

William Gholston DE Out Neck

Vernon Hargreaves CB Out Hamstring

Jameis Winston QB Out right Shoulder

MIA

Kenny Stills WR Questionable Back

William Hayes DE Questionable Knee

Senorise Perry RB Questionable Knee

Michael Thomas S Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 11 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

TB 30

–

MIA 20

Prediction missed by 9 pts on margin, 7 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

Q1 07:16 FG TB (7:16) (Field Goal formation) 7-P.Murray 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-9-B.Anger. TB 3 – MIA 0
Q1 04:27 TD MIA (4:27) 6-J.Cutler pass short left to 14-J.Landry for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 3 – MIA 6
Q2 14:14 FG TB (14:14) (Field Goal formation) 7-P.Murray 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-9-B.Anger. TB 6 – MIA 7
Q2 12:20 TD TB (12:20) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short right to 80-O.Howard for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 12 – MIA 7
Q2 00:50 TD TB (:50) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short middle to 11-D.Jackson for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 19 – MIA 7
Q3 11:01 FG MIA (11:01) (Field Goal formation) 1-C.Parkey 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-16-M.Haack. TB 20 – MIA 10
Q3 04:22 FG MIA (4:22) (Field Goal formation) 1-C.Parkey 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-16-M.Haack. TB 20 – MIA 13
Q4 03:09 TD MIA (3:09) (Shotgun) 8-M.Moore pass deep right to 10-K.Stills for 61 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 20 – MIA 19
Q4 00:07 FG TB (:07) (Field Goal formation) 7-P.Murray 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-9-B.Anger. TB 23 – MIA 20
Q4 00:04 TD TB 7-P.Murray kicks 40 yards from TB 35 to MIA 25. 26-D.Williams to MIA 18 for -7 yards. Pass back to 14-J.Landry to MIA 15 for -3 yards. FUMBLES, recovered by MIA-19-J.Grant at MIA 13. 19-J.Grant to MIA 3 for -10 yards. FUMBLES, RECOVERED by TB-53-A.Glanton at MIA 0. TOUCHDOWN. TB 29 – MIA 20

Fourth-Down Decisions

Q1 TB 4th & 4 at the 53

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.55 EP

p(convert) 47% p(FG) 19%

(13:11) (Punt formation) 9-B.Anger punts 41 yards to MIA 12, Center-65-G.Sanborn. 14-J.Landry to MIA 19 for 7 yards (26-J.Robinson).
See the full breakdown →
Q1 TB 4th & 6 at the 12

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 35% p(FG) 95%

(7:16) (Field Goal formation) 7-P.Murray 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-9-B.Anger.
See the full breakdown →
Q2 TB 4th & 2 at the 12

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.87 EP

p(convert) 53% p(FG) 95%

(14:14) (Field Goal formation) 7-P.Murray 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-9-B.Anger.
See the full breakdown →
Q2 TB 4th & 9 at the 24

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 30% p(FG) 84%

(9:18) (Field Goal formation) 7-P.Murray 42 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-9-B.Anger.
See the full breakdown →
Q2 TB 4th & 2 at the 51

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.07 EP

p(convert) 58% p(FG) 22%

(2:00) (Punt formation) 9-B.Anger punts 21 yards to MIA 30, Center-65-G.Sanborn, out of bounds.
See the full breakdown →
Q3 MIA 4th & 8 at the 8

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 28% p(FG) 97%

(11:01) (Field Goal formation) 1-C.Parkey 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-16-M.Haack.
See the full breakdown →
Q3 TB 4th & 8 at the 65

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 37%

(9:19) (Punt formation) 9-B.Anger punts 44 yards to MIA 21, Center-65-G.Sanborn, fair catch by 19-J.Grant.
See the full breakdown →
Q3 MIA 4th & 12 at the 13

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 23% p(FG) 95%

(4:22) (Field Goal formation) 1-C.Parkey 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-16-M.Haack.
See the full breakdown →
Q3 TB 4th & 7 at the 72

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 40%

(2:24) (Punt formation) 9-B.Anger punts 62 yards to MIA 10, Center-65-G.Sanborn. 19-J.Grant to MIA 10 for no gain (25-P.Barber). PENALTY on MIA-42-A.Verner, Offensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at MIA 10.
See the full breakdown →
Q4 MIA 4th & 9 at the 44

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 30% p(FG) 38%

(12:33) (Punt formation) 16-M.Haack punts 42 yards to TB 2, Center-92-J.Denney, downed by MIA-35-W.Aikens. PENALTY on TB-91-R.Ayers Jr., Offensive Holding, 1 yard, enforced at TB 2.
See the full breakdown →
Q4 MIA 4th & 1 at the 34

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 65% p(FG) 64%

(7:03) 26-D.Williams right guard to TB 34 for no gain (90-C.Baker; 54-L.David).
See the full breakdown →
Q4 TB 4th & 13 at the 62 late-game

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 29%

(4:50) (Punt formation) 9-B.Anger punts 36 yards to MIA 26, Center-65-G.Sanborn, downed by TB-53-A.Glanton.
See the full breakdown →
Q4 TB 4th & 7 at the 17 late-game

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 33% p(FG) 92%

(:07) (Field Goal formation) 7-P.Murray 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-9-B.Anger.
See the full breakdown →

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