Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 7 at the 72

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20 – Miami Dolphins 13

What Actually Happened

(2:24) (Punt formation) 9-B.Anger punts 62 yards to MIA 10, Center-65-G.Sanborn. 19-J.Grant to MIA 10 for no gain (25-P.Barber). PENALTY on MIA-42-A.Verner, Offensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at MIA 10.

The Three Options

GO -2.13 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.21 EP
60% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 72, worth -4.35 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model