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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q4
Miami Dolphins
4th & 1 at the 34
Miami Dolphins 13 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20
What Actually Happened
(7:03) 26-D.Williams right guard to TB 34 for no gain (90-C.Baker; 54-L.David).
The Three Options
GO
+1.66 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
65% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.41 EP
- 35% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 34, worth -1.54 EP
KICK
+0.43 EP
- 64% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.76 EP
- 36% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 44, worth -1.97 EP
PUNT
-0.32 EP
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
