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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 8 at the 8

Miami Dolphins 7 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20

What Actually Happened

(11:01) (Field Goal formation) 1-C.Parkey 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-16-M.Haack.

The Three Options

GO +2.18 EP
  • 28% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.39 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 8, worth +0.54 EP
KICK +2.37 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.46 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.27 EP
PUNT +0.46 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model