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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 2 at the 51

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 13 – Miami Dolphins 7

What Actually Happened

(2:00) (Punt formation) 9-B.Anger punts 21 yards to MIA 30, Center-65-G.Sanborn, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO +0.43 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.53 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 51, worth -2.49 EP
KICK -1.51 EP
  • 22% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.91 EP
  • 78% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 49, worth -2.48 EP
PUNT -0.63 EP
What Happened
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 14, worth -0.63 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.07 EP