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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 9 at the 24

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 13 – Miami Dolphins 7

What Actually Happened

(9:18) (Field Goal formation) 7-P.Murray 42 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-9-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +0.59 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +4.73 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 24, worth -1.21 EP
KICK +1.09 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 84% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.64 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 34, worth -1.89 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model