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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 12 at the 13

Miami Dolphins 10 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20

What Actually Happened

(4:22) (Field Goal formation) 1-C.Parkey 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-16-M.Haack.

The Three Options

GO +1.75 EP
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.38 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 13, worth +0.35 EP
KICK +2.34 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.50 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 23, worth -0.40 EP
PUNT +0.47 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model