4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 6 at the 12

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – Miami Dolphins 0

What Actually Happened

(7:16) (Field Goal formation) 7-P.Murray 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-9-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +1.84 EP
Model's Pick
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.45 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 12, worth -0.10 EP
KICK +1.81 EP
What Happened
  • 95% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.94 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 22, worth -0.89 EP
PUNT -0.00 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model