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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 9 at the 44

Miami Dolphins 13 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20

What Actually Happened

(12:33) (Punt formation) 16-M.Haack punts 42 yards to TB 2, Center-92-J.Denney, downed by MIA-35-W.Aikens. PENALTY on TB-91-R.Ayers Jr., Offensive Holding, 1 yard, enforced at TB 2.

The Three Options

GO +0.11 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.97 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 44, worth -1.56 EP
KICK -0.31 EP
  • 38% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.81 EP
  • 62% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.21 EP
PUNT +0.68 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 12, worth +0.68 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model