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Philadelphia Eagles

HC Doug Pederson
@
DAL Home

Dallas Cowboys

HC Jason Garrett
Sunday 2017-11-19 · 20:30 AT&T Stadium, Arlington US 🏟 Dome Spread -6.0 O/U 48.0

Win Probability

PHI
58.4%
DAL
41.6%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • PHI offense: +0.106 EPA/play over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • PHI on 7 more days rest than DAL
  • DAL offense: +0.053 EPA/play over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • DAL defense: +0.034 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)
  • PHI defense: -0.067 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (13th in the league)
  • QB edge to PHI: Dak Prescott (DAL) +0.103 vs Carson Wentz (PHI) +0.128 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

PHI 26
–
DAL 23
Projected margin: PHI by 3 Projected total: 49

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 11

PHI

Alshon Jeffery WR Questionable Ankle

DAL

Dan Bailey K Out right Groin
Sean Lee LB Out Hamstring
Jeff Heath S Questionable Concussion
Tyron Smith T Questionable Back
Maliek Collins DT Questionable Foot
Geoff Swaim TE Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 11 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

PHI 37
–
DAL 9

Prediction missed by 25 pts on margin, 3 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 13:27 FG DAL (13:27) (Field Goal formation) 2-M.Nugent 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones. PHI 0 – DAL 3
  • Q1 09:11 TD PHI (9:11) (No Huddle) 38-K.Barner left guard for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. PHI 6 – DAL 3
  • Q1 03:20 FG DAL (3:20) (Field Goal formation) 2-M.Nugent 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones. PHI 7 – DAL 6
  • Q2 01:00 FG DAL (1:00) (Field Goal formation) 2-M.Nugent 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones. PHI 7 – DAL 9
  • Q3 11:01 TD PHI (11:01) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 30-C.Clement up the middle for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 13 – DAL 9
  • Q3 05:50 TD PHI (5:50) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short middle to 82-T.Smith for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN [59-A.Hitchens]. Penalty on DAL-30-A.Brown, Defensive Holding, declined. PHI 21 – DAL 9
  • Q4 12:10 TD PHI (12:10) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass deep middle to 17-A.Jeffery for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 29 – DAL 9
  • Q4 10:55 TD PHI (10:55) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott sacked at DAL 37 for -8 yards (96-D.Barnett). FUMBLES (96-D.Barnett), RECOVERED by PHI-53-N.Bradham at DAL 37. 53-N.Bradham for 37 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 35 – DAL 9

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DAL 4th & 3 at the 30
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49% p(FG) 78%

    (13:27) (Field Goal formation) 2-M.Nugent 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

  • Q1 DAL 4th & 7 at the 9
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 97%

    (3:20) (Field Goal formation) 2-M.Nugent 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

  • Q1 PHI 4th & 6 at the 45
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 43%

    (1:27) (Punt formation) 8-D.Jones punts 45 yards to end zone, Center-45-R.Lovato, Touchback.

  • Q1 PHI 4th & 11 at the 16
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 94%

    (:18) (Field Goal formation) 4-J.Elliott 34 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-D.Jones.

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 4 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50%

    (14:24) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 48 yards to PHI 22, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, fair catch by 38-K.Barner.

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 5 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (13:20) (Punt formation) 8-D.Jones punts 47 yards to DAL 26, Center-45-R.Lovato. 10-R.Switzer to DAL 28 for 2 yards (54-K.Grugier-Hill).

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 8 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (12:30) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 61 yards to PHI 9, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, downed by DAL-33-C.Awuzie.

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 5 at the 86
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50%

    (10:53) (Punt formation) 8-D.Jones punts 61 yards to DAL 25, Center-45-R.Lovato, downed by PHI-24-C.Graham.

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 8 at the 44
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 45%

    (8:19) (Punt formation) 8-D.Jones punts 32 yards to DAL 12, Center-45-R.Lovato, fair catch by 11-C.Beasley.

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 6 at the 29
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 80%

    (1:00) (Field Goal formation) 2-M.Nugent 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 8 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (:15) (Punt formation) 8-D.Jones punts 46 yards to DAL 27, Center-45-R.Lovato. 10-R.Switzer to DAL 26 for -1 yards (30-C.Clement).

  • Q3 DAL 4th & 10 at the 39
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 58%

    (8:15) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 29 yards to PHI 10, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, fair catch by 38-K.Barner.

  • Q3 DAL 4th & 2 at the 55
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.97 EP
    p(convert) 59%

    (2:59) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 40 yards to PHI 15, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, fair catch by 38-K.Barner.

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 5 at the 17
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 93%

    (12:10) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass deep middle to 17-A.Jeffery for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 10 at the 11
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 96%

    (7:10) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep middle intended for 83-T.Williams INTERCEPTED by 27-M.Jenkins at PHI -5. Touchback. PENALTY on PHI-91-F.Cox, Illegal Blindside Block, 10 yards, enforced at PHI 20.

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 4 at the 69 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52%

    (3:25) (Punt formation) 8-D.Jones punts 44 yards to DAL 25, Center-45-R.Lovato. 10-R.Switzer to DAL 24 for -1 yards (24-C.Graham).

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 15 at the 81 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (2:00) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 56 yards to PHI 25, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, fair catch by 38-K.Barner.