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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 8 at the 73

Philadelphia Eagles 7 – Dallas Cowboys 9

What Actually Happened

(:15) (Punt formation) 8-D.Jones punts 46 yards to DAL 27, Center-45-R.Lovato. 10-R.Switzer to DAL 26 for -1 yards (30-C.Clement).

The Three Options

GO -1.37 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +0.44 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 73, worth -2.61 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -0.37 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 31, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model