Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 5 at the 73

Philadelphia Eagles 7 – Dallas Cowboys 6

(13:20) (Punt formation) 8-D.Jones punts 47 yards to DAL 26, Center-45-R.Lovato. 10-R.Switzer to DAL 28 for 2 yards (54-K.Grugier-Hill).

The Three Options

GO -1.73 EP

48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.06 EP
52% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 73, worth -4.34 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model