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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 11 at the 16

Philadelphia Eagles 7 – Dallas Cowboys 6

What Actually Happened

(:18) (Field Goal formation) 4-J.Elliott 34 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-D.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +1.14 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.65 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 16, worth -0.70 EP
KICK +1.58 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.78 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 26, worth -1.34 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model