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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 15 at the 81

Dallas Cowboys 9 – Philadelphia Eagles 37

What Actually Happened

(2:00) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 56 yards to PHI 25, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, fair catch by 38-K.Barner.

The Three Options

GO -2.34 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.15 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 81, worth -3.83 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

PUNT -1.47 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 38, worth -1.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model