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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 4 at the 69

Philadelphia Eagles 37 – Dallas Cowboys 9

What Actually Happened

(3:25) (Punt formation) 8-D.Jones punts 44 yards to DAL 25, Center-45-R.Lovato. 10-R.Switzer to DAL 24 for -1 yards (24-C.Graham).

The Three Options

GO -0.85 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.31 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 69, worth -3.16 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -0.97 EP
What Happened
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 27, worth -0.97 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model