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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 6 at the 45

Philadelphia Eagles 7 – Dallas Cowboys 6

What Actually Happened

(1:27) (Punt formation) 8-D.Jones punts 45 yards to end zone, Center-45-R.Lovato, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.03 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.23 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 45, worth -2.36 EP
KICK -0.78 EP
  • 43% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.93 EP
  • 57% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 49, worth -2.82 EP
PUNT -0.13 EP
What Happened
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 12, worth -0.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model