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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 8 at the 44

Philadelphia Eagles 7 – Dallas Cowboys 6

What Actually Happened

(8:19) (Punt formation) 8-D.Jones punts 32 yards to DAL 12, Center-45-R.Lovato, fair catch by 11-C.Beasley.

The Three Options

GO -0.20 EP
Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.44 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 44, worth -2.33 EP
KICK -0.79 EP
  • 45% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.60 EP
  • 55% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 49, worth -2.77 EP
PUNT -0.53 EP
What Happened
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 12, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP