4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 3 at the 30

Dallas Cowboys 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 0

What Actually Happened

(13:27) (Field Goal formation) 2-M.Nugent 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +1.69 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.49 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 30, worth -1.03 EP
KICK +1.43 EP
What Happened
  • 78% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.35 EP
  • 22% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 40, worth -1.81 EP
PUNT +0.16 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth +0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model