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New England Patriots

HC Bill Belichick
@
OAK Home

Oakland Raiders

HC Jack Del Rio
Sunday 2017-11-19 · 16:25 Azteca Stadium, Mexico City MX ☀️ Clear Spread -7.0 O/U 55.0

Win Probability

NE
69.0%
OAK
31.0%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NE offense: +0.162 EPA/play over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • Neutral site — no home-field edge
  • LV offense: -0.084 EPA/play over its last 8 games (21st in the league)
  • Tom Brady (NE): +0.242 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • LV on 7 more days rest than NE
  • NE defense: +0.091 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • LV defense: +0.044 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (24th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

NE 26
–
OAK 20
Projected margin: NE by 6 Projected total: 46

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 11

NE

David Andrews C Out Illness
Marcus Cannon T Out Ankle
Chris Hogan WR Out Shoulder
Matt Slater WR Out Hamstring
Danny Amendola WR Questionable Knee
Martellus Bennett TE Questionable Shoulder
Malcom Brown DT Questionable Ankle
Cassius Marsh DE Questionable Shoulder
Eric Rowe CB Questionable Groin

OAK

David Amerson CB Doubtful Foot
Gabe Jackson G Questionable Ankle
Cory James LB Questionable Knee
Marshall Newhouse T Questionable Hip
Jamize Olawale RB Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 11 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NE 33
–
OAK 8

Prediction missed by 19 pts on margin, 5 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 04:18 TD NE (4:18) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short right to 33-D.Lewis for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 6 – OAK 0
  • Q2 05:29 TD NE (5:29) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short middle to 80-D.Amendola for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 13 – OAK 0
  • Q2 00:05 FG NE (:05) 3-S.Gostkowski 62 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen. NE 17 – OAK 0
  • Q3 14:15 TD NE (14:15) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep right to 14-B.Cooks for 64 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 23 – OAK 0
  • Q3 07:09 FG NE (7:09) 3-S.Gostkowski 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen. NE 27 – OAK 0
  • Q3 02:08 FG NE (2:08) 3-S.Gostkowski 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen. NE 30 – OAK 0
  • Q4 11:50 TD LV (11:50) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short right to 89-A.Cooper for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 30 – OAK 6
  • Q4 08:19 FG NE (8:19) 3-S.Gostkowski 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen. NE 33 – OAK 8

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 LV 4th & 4 at the 57
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (11:23) 7-M.King punts 44 yards to NE 13, Center-59-J.Condo, fair catch by 80-D.Amendola.

  • Q2 NE 4th & 5 at the 57
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.42 EP
    p(convert) 48%

    (13:42) 6-R.Allen punts 44 yards to LV 13, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 30-J.Richard.

  • Q2 LV 4th & 13 at the 46
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 40%

    (9:03) 7-M.King punts 46 yards to end zone, Center-59-J.Condo, Touchback.

  • Q3 LV 4th & 10 at the 47
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 38%

    (11:10) 7-M.King punts 47 yards to end zone, Center-59-J.Condo, Touchback.

  • Q3 NE 4th & 6 at the 33
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 72%

    (7:09) 3-S.Gostkowski 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.

  • Q3 LV 4th & 1 at the 56
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70%

    (4:45) 49-J.Olawale up the middle to LV 44 for no gain (23-P.Chung).

  • Q3 NE 4th & 5 at the 22
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 89%

    (2:08) 3-S.Gostkowski 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.

  • Q4 LV 4th & 6 at the 50
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 31%

    (14:51) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short left to 15-M.Crabtree to NE 35 for 15 yards (30-D.Harmon).

  • Q4 NE 4th & 3 at the 11
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.75 EP
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 96%

    (8:19) 3-S.Gostkowski 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.

  • Q4 LV 4th & 10 at the 38 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.55 EP
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 61%

    (4:09) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short left to 87-J.Cook pushed ob at NE 28 for 10 yards (23-P.Chung). New England challenged the first down ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field was confirmed. (Timeout #2.)

  • Q4 LV 4th & 3 at the 21 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 90%

    (2:39) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass incomplete deep left to 10-S.Roberts.

  • Q4 NE 4th & 1 at the 70 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 74%

    (:26) 6-R.Allen punts 51 yards to LV 19, Center-49-J.Cardona, out of bounds.