4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 6 at the 33

New England Patriots 24 – Las Vegas Raiders 0

What Actually Happened

(7:09) 3-S.Gostkowski 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.

The Three Options

GO +0.80 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.24 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 33, worth -1.63 EP
KICK +0.72 EP
What Happened
  • 72% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
  • 28% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 43, worth -2.27 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model