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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 1 at the 56

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – New England Patriots 27

What Actually Happened

(4:45) 49-J.Olawale up the middle to LV 44 for no gain (23-P.Chung).

The Three Options

GO +0.58 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.16 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 56, worth -3.03 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.71 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 17, worth -0.71 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model