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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 3 at the 11

New England Patriots 30 – Las Vegas Raiders 8

What Actually Happened

(8:19) 3-S.Gostkowski 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.

The Three Options

GO +2.46 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.20 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 11, worth -0.29 EP
KICK +1.71 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 22, worth -1.00 EP
PUNT -0.29 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.75 EP