Back to Game
Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
?
Q2
Las Vegas Raiders
4th & 13 at the 46
Las Vegas Raiders 0 – New England Patriots 7
What Actually Happened
(9:03) 7-M.King punts 46 yards to end zone, Center-59-J.Condo, Touchback.
The Three Options
GO
-0.69 EP
-
28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.93 EP
- 72% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 46, worth -2.44 EP
KICK
-0.77 EP
- 40% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.94 EP
- 60% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 49, worth -2.60 EP
PUNT
-0.36 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
- New England Patriots would take over around their own 13, worth -0.36 EP
The Verdict
Chose PUNT
✓ matched the model
