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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 5 at the 57

New England Patriots 7 – Las Vegas Raiders 0

What Actually Happened

(13:42) 6-R.Allen punts 44 yards to LV 13, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 30-J.Richard.

The Three Options

GO -0.51 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.50 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 57, worth -3.24 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.94 EP
What Happened
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 17, worth -0.94 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.42 EP