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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 6 at the 50

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – New England Patriots 30

What Actually Happened

(14:51) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short left to 15-M.Crabtree to NE 35 for 15 yards (30-D.Harmon).

The Three Options

GO -0.54 EP
What Happened
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.79 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 50, worth -2.72 EP
KICK -1.24 EP
  • 31% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.04 EP
  • 69% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 49, worth -2.72 EP
PUNT -0.49 EP
Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 14, worth -0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model