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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 5 at the 22

New England Patriots 27 – Las Vegas Raiders 0

What Actually Happened

(2:08) 3-S.Gostkowski 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.

The Three Options

GO +1.63 EP
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +4.83 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 22, worth -0.77 EP
KICK +1.66 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 89% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.04 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 32, worth -1.43 EP
PUNT +0.08 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth +0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model