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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q4
Las Vegas Raiders
4th & 3 at the 21
Las Vegas Raiders 8 – New England Patriots 33
What Actually Happened
(2:39) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass incomplete deep left to 10-S.Roberts.
The Three Options
GO
+1.84 EP
What Happened
-
47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.40 EP
- 53% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 21, worth -0.47 EP
KICK
+1.97 EP
Model's Pick
- 90% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.28 EP
- 10% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 31, worth -0.75 EP
PUNT
-0.28 EP
- New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.28 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
