4th & Data
EN ES
← Home
KC Away

Kansas City Chiefs

HC Andy Reid
@
NYG Home

New York Giants

HC Ben McAdoo
Sunday 2017-11-19 · 13:00 MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford US 🌧 Rain Spread -10.0 O/U 44.5

Win Probability

KC
63.0%
NYG
37.0%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to KC: Eli Manning (NYG) -0.049 vs Alex Smith (KC) +0.192 EPA/dropback
  • NYG offense: -0.096 EPA/play over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)
  • KC offense: +0.054 EPA/play over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • KC on 7 more days rest than NYG
  • NYG defense: +0.056 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • Wind 23 mph
  • KC defense: +0.065 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (30th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

KC 23
–
NYG 19
Projected margin: KC by 4 Projected total: 42

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 11

KC

Allen Bailey DE Out Knee
Dee Ford LB Out Back
Tamba Hali LB Out Knee
Albert Wilson WR Out Hamstring

NYG

B.J. Goodson LB Out Ankle
Justin Pugh G Out Back
Kelvin Sheppard LB Doubtful Groin
Damon Harrison DT Questionable Ankle
Devon Kennard LB Questionable Quadricep

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 11 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

KC 9
–
NYG 12

Prediction missed by 7 pts on margin, 21 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q2 13:30 TD NYG (13:30) 26-O.Darkwa right tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. KC 0 – NYG 6
  • Q2 04:13 FG KC (4:13) 7-H.Butker 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt. KC 3 – NYG 6
  • Q4 13:34 FG KC (13:34) 7-H.Butker 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt. KC 6 – NYG 6
  • Q4 01:41 FG NYG (1:41) 2-A.Rosas 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-B.Wing. KC 6 – NYG 9
  • Q4 00:05 FG KC (:05) 7-H.Butker 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt. KC 9 – NYG 9
  • Q5 01:57 FG NYG (1:57) 2-A.Rosas 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-B.Wing. KC 9 – NYG 12

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 KC 4th & 5 at the 46
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 23%

    (11:21) 2-D.Colquitt punts 28 yards to NYG 18, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 83-K.Raymond.

  • Q1 NYG 4th & 1 at the 59
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69%

    (7:59) (Punt formation) 29-N.Berhe up the middle to NYG 43 for 2 yards (57-K.Pierre-Louis). Direct snap to N.Berhe.

  • Q2 KC 4th & 5 at the 32
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 61%

    (7:36) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith scrambles right guard to NYG 26 for 6 yards (90-J.Pierre-Paul, 41-D.Rodgers-Cromartie).

  • Q2 KC 4th & 9 at the 13
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 94%

    (4:13) 7-H.Butker 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.83 EP
    p(convert) 70%

    (2:55) 9-B.Wing punts 48 yards to KC 18, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, out of bounds.

  • Q2 KC 4th & 2 at the 74
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.62 EP
    p(convert) 63%

    (1:54) 2-D.Colquitt punts 49 yards to NYG 25, Center-41-J.Winchester. 83-K.Raymond MUFFS catch, and recovers at NYG 28. 83-K.Raymond to NYG 28 for no gain (31-A.Hunt, 53-R.Wilson).

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 4 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (1:10) 9-B.Wing punts 37 yards to KC 29, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 10-T.Hill pushed ob at KC 49 for 20 yards (29-N.Berhe). Penalty on KC-51-F.Zombo, Offensive Holding, declined. PENALTY on KC-48-T.Smith, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at KC 33. Officially, a return for 4 yards.

  • Q3 NYG 4th & 3 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 53%

    (12:52) 9-B.Wing punts 43 yards to KC 25, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 10-T.Hill ran ob at KC 30 for 5 yards (89-J.Adams).

  • Q3 KC 4th & 10 at the 37
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 46%

    (7:18) 2-D.Colquitt punts 28 yards to NYG 9, Center-41-J.Winchester, downed by KC-31-A.Hunt.

  • Q3 NYG 4th & 9 at the 33
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 58%

    (1:41) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass incomplete short left to 88-E.Engram (56-D.Johnson).

  • Q4 KC 4th & 7 at the 13
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 94%

    (13:34) 7-H.Butker 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 10 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (13:15) 9-B.Wing punts 43 yards to KC 32, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 13-D.Thomas MUFFS catch, recovered by KC-25-K.Acker at KC 31. 25-K.Acker to KC 31 for no gain (58-C.Grant).

  • Q4 KC 4th & 3 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 55%

    (11:53) 2-D.Colquitt punts 58 yards to NYG 4, Center-41-J.Winchester, downed by KC-41-J.Winchester.

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 13 at the 62 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (4:18) 9-B.Wing punts 57 yards to KC 5, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, downed by NYG-22-W.Gallman.

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 6 at the 8 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 96%

    (1:41) 2-A.Rosas 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-B.Wing.