Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 10 at the 75

New York Giants 6 – Kansas City Chiefs 6

What Actually Happened

(13:15) 9-B.Wing punts 43 yards to KC 32, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 13-D.Thomas MUFFS catch, recovered by KC-25-K.Acker at KC 31. 25-K.Acker to KC 31 for no gain (58-C.Grant).

The Three Options

GO -2.62 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.14 EP
66% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 75, worth -4.57 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model