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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 10 at the 37

Kansas City Chiefs 3 – New York Giants 6

What Actually Happened

(7:18) 2-D.Colquitt punts 28 yards to NYG 9, Center-41-J.Winchester, downed by KC-31-A.Hunt.

The Three Options

GO +0.18 EP
Model's Pick
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.27 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 37, worth -1.74 EP
KICK -0.38 EP
  • 46% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.09 EP
  • 54% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 46, worth -2.51 EP
PUNT +0.17 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth +0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model