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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 3 at the 68

New York Giants 6 – Kansas City Chiefs 3

What Actually Happened

(12:52) 9-B.Wing punts 43 yards to KC 25, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 10-T.Hill ran ob at KC 30 for 5 yards (89-J.Adams).

The Three Options

GO -1.01 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.62 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 68, worth -3.98 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -1.19 EP
What Happened
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 26, worth -1.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model